Author: Phoenix Capital Management

This bear market has lasted longer than we anticipated. We are asking ourselves on a daily basis when and how the next bull market will arrive, and even more importantly, whether there will ever be a serious bull market like those the industry has experienced in the past.

Therefore we have decided to initiate a new series of articles where we take an absolute subjective point of view to analyze the potential mega thesis for the next bull market.

Previous articles: ‘Next Bull Market Hypotheses’ #1: The USD Money Printer.

<aside> 💡 TL;DR

Money is crypto’s first and only killer app. And most importantly, it is still in its infancy.
We've undertaken quantitative analyses of the gold market to gauge crypto’s TAM as a digital store of value. The findings are promising, but significant issues require resolution before realizing this fully.
We believe the unexplored potential of digital gold dwarfs any other use case of blockchain that we can imagine today. The industry should pay more attention to improving the digital gold product instead of proliferating new applications. </aside>

As Matt Huang mentioned in his recent article ‘The Casino on Mars’ and widely accepted by most industrial practitioners, money is crypto’s first and most important application.

Many skeptics wonder when crypto’s “killer app” will arrive, but it turns out it’s already here.

While the price of cryptocurrency has historically not demonstrated a substantial correlation with gold—certainly exhibiting less correlation than it has with tech stocks and interest rates—it remains one of the most widely accepted comparisons.

We won’t discuss too much about why crypto can be regarded as gold in a digital form. It’s self-evident and widely accepted. Our objective is to delve deeper and employ a more quantitative approach to address the fundamental question:

How much more potential can crypto reach by serving solely as a digital store of value?

Table of Contents:

Replacing gold is a huge untapped opportunity